We have all watched sport series based on winning the best of seven — or first team to win four games.
I consider two teams: Team A and Team B. Given the probability of Team A winning any one game, ; therefore, Team B has probability of winning any one game.
The two teams have eight possible outcomes:
4-3, 4-2, 4-1, 4-0,
0-4, 1-4, 2-4, 3-4
Using hypergeometric probability, I calculate the likelihood of each of the 8 outcomes given each Team A probability (0.0 to 1.0).
The formula is as follows for a 7 game series:
n = specific total number of games played for a given winning outcome ( total for a 4-2 series)
calculates the number of permutations associated with a specific winning outcome (for example, 10 permutations for a 4-2 series where
Therefore, the probability of a 4-3 win is:
Best of Seven Live Chart
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