Best of Seven Outcome Probability Dec 2020
Best of Seven -- Calculate Outcome Probabilities
We have all watched sport series based on winning the best of seven — or first team to win four games.
I consider two teams: Team A and Team B. Given the probability of Team A winning any one game, p(A); therefore, Team B has p(B) = 1 – p(A) probability of winning any one game.
The two teams have eight possible outcomes:
4-3, 4-2, 4-1, 4-0,
0-4, 1-4, 2-4, 3-4
Using hypergeometric probability, I calculate the likelihood of each of the 8 outcomes given each Team A probability (0.0 to 1.0).
Best of Seven Live Chart
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Best of Seven -- Winning Outcome Probabilities
Best of Seven Winning Outcomes Live Chart
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Team A Winning Outcomes
The best of seven series steers the odds of winning in favor of the winning team. See table and chart below.